Request to publish Journal of Almeria in Sunday supplement innovation. As always, it has turned a tad long. I hope to criticism (constructive).
Can one be optimistic in Spain in the times? It is possible that most readers of this article think not, but I have made a firm promise to find reasons to be. Do not know about you, but I'm tired of this talk of crisis and bad news regarding the economy. And the funny thing is, we just have a look at the data carefully, the truth is that there are.
The chances sometimes lend the existence of opportunities for surprise. When you write these letters after reading the job of journalist friend, does not 30 hours of my speech as a lecturer in a training program. The purpose of my presence in the program was to provide an overview of macroeconomic expectations are drawn on the horizon of this 2011 that we have just begun to live. In my second ball transparency appears glass, with the idea of \u200b\u200breinforcing the image that these estimates of speaking could be turned into mere speculations due to the large number of uncertainties that are subject both the global and the national economy. Well, in his message, Diario de Almería I order an item "type crystal ball, but more basic. Given these caveats
previous step of the way the Witch Lola " and talk about the future. As I mentioned, the uncertainties that hang over the year 2011 are enormous. What is the probability that Spain has to resort to an IMF bailout? According to most economists, between myself included, walking. But enough that a significant number of players in the international debt market is created, to become a reality. A reality that is the worst case scenario, as the euro itself would be heavily hit, setting the stage for a new recession in Europe. But there's more: what would happen if China stopped to sue U.S. government debt? What if Brazil carried out its threat of trade war over the issue of currency? Would it be unreasonable to think of a Middle East on fire because of the frozen conflicts in the area? And in Spain, what impact will the expected change in cycle policy after municipal and regional? "Support a relative social peace if unemployment rates remain high for long? Well, thank goodness
wanted to be optimistic, you say, if he has not given a depression in the middle of the previous paragraph and stopped reading. Let us look at the positive data, to see if we pass the wrong body. First, the country's GDP is three quarters in growth zone and the first estimates for the 4 th quarter of 2010 are positive. Moreover, in recent months, most estimates of the GDP of Spain in 2010 and 2011 have been upward revisions. I know that growth will be little, but will growth. Furthermore, although unemployment continues to rise which tends, at rates that do are dwindling and it is quite possible that in 2011 we see positive data, in this area. Eye will not try to big declines in the unemployment rate, although the completion of the destruction process and a timid beginning of creation. From the supply side, industry and services will command our economy, given that budgetary efforts will cut the drag much of the public sector in the coming years.
At the provincial level, things do not go astray, although that is some delay with respect to the performance of the economy national. For example, if the labor market, looking at the trend-cycle series of registered unemployment and affiliations, we can see that the adjustment process can not yet completed. But it is clear that throughout 2010 the trend turned around and now the rising unemployment rates are substantially lower than a year ago, while the decrease in membership are much smaller. That is, by maintaining the inertia, we would be returning to net job creation over 2011. Here I reiterate the determination made on a national level: it is unlikely that job creation is substantial. The basic problem for job creation here and nationally, is unlikely to allow firms to increase their workforces while grow their production. Domestic demand is awakening, but the first sections of this new demand can be perfectly covered with the facilities and the current templates as most of them are oversized after the collapse in demand during 2008 and 2009. In addition, the process of job destruction has led to a substantial increase in productivity, which implies that, on average, companies need fewer people now than two years ago to enter more in their accounts.
The main problem we face for the coming years is how to significantly reduce unemployment rates we have achieved once the situation stabilizes. On the one hand, construction and marble seem to be outside bets for the moment, the terrible crisis that are both not allowed to accumulate too much hope on them in the short term. On the other hand, it seems that agriculture in the province is undergoing a restrengthening in terms of human and technological capital. Although historical trends point to a deterioration of unit prices, the production system as a whole has begun to take measures that appear headed in the right direction. Also, the government's own attitudes and entrepreneurs / farmers for the sector and its future are also changing. However, it is likely that the segment producer living a restructuring process that you can not act as a lever for job growth, although GDP.
Finally, tourism seems to have completed the process of adjusting to the new world of internet booking and low cost. The structures have been lightened and the range of accommodation has been adapted to the concepts of low-cost all-inclusive. At the same time, tourism demand has begun to revive, what is sure to help the sector positive close in 2011 after several years of drought. However, the fees for which the hotel was guided in past decades are no longer current, and the ability to create jobs for the same has been reduced to mechanize much of the management processes and have adjusted cost accounts. However, at the height of his campaign, in 2011 tourism will have a compensating effect on the temporary job destruction in agriculture, without the short term may become the major manufacturer of employment that this province needs.
Recently, some have focused the discussion on provincial economic engine in residential tourism and health services and personal attention. I hate to disagree with them. The bulk of employment generated by tourism is related to residential construction process, and if you take a look at the housing statistics in recent years, which can not but realize that the province has accumulated a surplus that is going residential to cost a few years to assimilate. Therefore, even if it is true that Almería is still an attractive destination for residential tourism is not likely to generate increased demand for construction and in any case, its effects on local markets for personal services will be closely associated with the degree of concentration of new populations of part-time residents.
What remains then? Possibly, this is the boldest response to this article. There remains the obvious, the ancillary industry of agriculture and its productive muscle, sustained by the large local market and able to undertake foreign adventures. And we have the unexpected, which may not be able to imagine even today. Economies are dynamic because the people are imbued with this dynamism. People are the protagonists of the economy, much as we like to think that they are the markets or states. Creativity, the ability to exploit new opportunities arising in the market, is partly a personal attitude that becomes social when most members understand that the same is a positive value. I think in Almeria can be reasonably optimistic about this, because our current development is based on just that, creativity and making a virtue of necessity. There may be new growth engines, linked to energy, technology and water treatment, or social networks. What I do not doubt is that the talent build our youth will find a way by which come to light.
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